ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090230 
SPC MCD 090230 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 208...210...

Valid 090230Z - 090430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 208, 210 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large/very-large hail, isolated severe gusts,
and a tornado or two could persist beyond 03Z. Watch extensions
could be needed for southeast Arkansas into northwest Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Two supercells continue east-southeastward in northeast
Texas. They have both shown some oscillations in intensity  and
organization over the past hour or so. The environment remains
strongly buoyant ahead of them with 40-50 kts of effective shear.
Large to possibly very large hail still may occur as could isolated
severe gusts. The tornado risk is less certain, though a modest
increase in low-level helicity is evident downstream on objective
mesoanalysis. Based on current projections, these storms will
probably effect portions of northwest Louisiana and southeast
Arkansas beyond the 03Z time frame when WW 208 and WW 210 are set to
expire. Some local extensions in time/area may be needed to account
for this possibility.

..Wendt.. 05/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32539620 32769660 32879654 33079625 34089490 33479325
            32859306 32099447 32429582 32539620 

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