ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 140434 
SPC MCD 140434 
FLZ000-140630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Areas affected...Coastal Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 140434Z - 140630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Low risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado,
with convection early this morning.

DISCUSSION...MCS that developed over the lower Sabine River Valley
has matured into a larger complex as it propagates along the central
Gulf Coast. Northern edge of this MCS is gradually weakening as it
encounters less buoyant air mass, and the most robust updrafts are
now focusing near/just off the AL Coast into the northern Gulf
Basin. Old outflow boundary is currently draped from near
CTY-AAF-south of PNS. Surface dew points/buoyancy are notably less
north of the wind shift. It's not clear this boundary will advance
north over the next few hours so the primary risk for strong/severe
convection will likely focus along/south of this boundary where dew
points are in the 70s. Low risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a
brief tornado, will be noted along the leading edge of this
progressive MCS.

..Darrow/Hart.. 05/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30348675 30418459 30038415 29548459 29708659 30348675 

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