ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141243
SPC MCD 141243
FLZ000-141415-
Mesoscale Discussion 0780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Areas affected...Parts of central/north FL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 241...
Valid 141243Z - 141415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues.
SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across north Florida could pose a threat
for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. A storm cluster
could move into parts of central/north Florida later this morning,
which would also pose some severe risk.
DISCUSSION...Generally disorganized storms are ongoing this morning
across north FL. Despite moderate buoyancy and favorable low-level
and deep-layer shear (as noted in the 12Z JAX sounding), these
storms have struggled to mature, potentially due to generally modest
large-scale ascent and rather warm temperatures aloft. Some diurnal
heating is underway to the east and south of these storms, which
will aid in further destabilization and may aid in the development
of a couple stronger cells or clusters through mid morning, which
would pose a threat for damaging wind and a tornado.
Farther west, a storm cluster is moving rather quickly eastward
across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. With a rather favorable
downstream environment, there is some potential for this cluster to
propagate along an outflow-reinforced surface front and potentially
reach west-central FL later this morning, with a renewed threat for
damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two. However, with some
residual capping noted on the 12Z TBW sounding, the longevity of
this cluster remains somewhat uncertain. Depending on how this
cluster evolves as it approaches the coast, there is some potential
for new WW issuance later this morning.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28278350 28898289 29838232 30238210 30528189 30678161
30478118 29728091 28918074 27648102 27248137 27078220
27188271 27648302 28278350
NNNN