ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142207 
SPC MCD 142207 
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-142330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142207Z - 142330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon,
and an instance or two of marginally severe hail cannot be ruled
out. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular and multicellular storms have been
percolating in intensity across portions of eastern CO into western
KS. These storms are overspreading a deep boundary layer with large
rainwater evaporation potential, with surface temperatures
approaching 90 F amid low 40s dewpoints. Given the 40-50 F spreads
and inverted-v vertical thermodynamic profiles extending to nearly
500 mb, the ongoing storms should be high-based. 21Z mesoanalysis
shows 9.5-10 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates within the boundary layer,
suggesting that rainfall evaporation will support enough downward
momentum transport to potentially produce a couple of severe gusts.
One of the heavier/wetter storm cores may also contain some hail.
Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance
is unlikely.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37890491 38880469 39610354 39960222 39870109 39210030
            38319999 37670007 37050099 36820310 37330410 37890491 

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