ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170049 
SPC MCD 170049 
LAZ000-TXZ000-170245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...Upper TX Coast...Southern LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 249...

Valid 170049Z - 170245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 249 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread across the remaining
southeastern portions of ww249 this evening. Damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado or two, remain the primary risks.

DISCUSSION...Large MCS has matured over northern LA/upper TX Coast
and is propagating downstream toward the lower MS Valley. Latest
radar data suggests an MCV may be forming within the expansive
precip shield over the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature is
moving east and may contribute to the overall organization of the
cluster as it spreads across southern LA. LLJ is forecast to
strengthen across southern LA over the next few hours and latest VAD
from LCH supports this with 0-3km SRH in excess of 550 m2/s2. Strong
low-level warm advection favors a well-organized MCS advancing east
and damaging winds remain the greatest risk along the surging
bow-like structures. Additionally, some tornado risk continues with
embedded supercells along the QLCS.

..Darrow.. 05/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29359506 30449379 31009194 30309133 29849277 28889487
            29359506 

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