ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172204 
SPC MCD 172204 
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Areas affected...North Dakota and northwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...

Valid 172204Z - 180000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for strong to severe surface gusts will become more
prominent with increasing thunderstorm development overspreading
much of North Dakota through northwestern South Dakota into early
evening.  One or two additional severe weather watches may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...The leading edge of stronger mid/upper support for
upward vertical motion associated with a vigorous short wave trough
turning eastward into the northern U.S. Rockies appears to just now
be approaching the Montana/western Dakotas state border vicinity. 
This may be contributing to the evolving cluster of storms now
spreading northeastward out of southeastern Montana into
southwestern North Dakota, which may continue to intensify as it
acquires inflow of somewhat better boundary-layer instability,
northeast and east of a developing surface low near the western
North and South Dakota state border area.  While it seems probable
that this convection might gradually become the primary focus for
strong to severe surface gusts into the evening hours, high-based
convective development has increased and evolved into a developing
line ahead of it, now approaching the Devils Lake vicinity. 
Embedded within moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly mean flow on
the order of 30 kt, evaporative cooling and downward momentum
transfer within a warm and deeply mixed boundary layer into eastern
North Dakota may also contribute to increasing potential for locally
strong to severe surface gusts.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   49019704 48189604 46179852 45369948 44540099 44670332
            44630459 45590361 46770291 47180243 48070160 48719903
            49019704 

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