ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180217 
SPC MCD 180217 
MSZ000-LAZ000-180315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Areas affected...southern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 180217Z - 180315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase into the overnight
hours across southern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...A very moist Gulf airmass is in place across southern
Louisiana this evening with a 18.5 mean mixing ratio on the 00Z LIX
RAOB and mid to upper 70s dewpoints across most of the Delta. This
deep moisture is supporting 2500 to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC
mesoanalysis) which should be maintained for much of the overnight
period across the region. Strong shear (60 to 70 knots) will support
supercells with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Weak low-level flow, per LIX 00Z RAOB and HDC VWP, combined
with weak low-level lapse rates and at least partially elevated
inflow bases, should limit the tornado threat during the overnight
period. 

A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by 03Z to cover the overnight
supercell threat.

..Bentley/Smith.. 05/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29339361 29999288 30539157 30878975 30868887 30708861
            30508843 30198841 29518871 29028896 28778959 28979075
            29079140 29009212 28919270 28879291 29339361 

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