ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192340 
SPC MCD 192340 
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-200115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...Central to western SD into the NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

Valid 192340Z - 200115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
continues.

SUMMARY...Primary severe threat exists within the South Dakota
portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. This activity should
spread into parts of north-central South Dakota, where an additional
small watch or local extension may occur. Overall severe threat
appears to have diminished in the Nebraska portion of the watch.

DISCUSSION...While thunderstorms have subsided over the NE portion
of WW 259, several individual cells appear to be growing upscale
into a small MCS from western into central SD. Short-term CAM
guidance suggests an MCV should emanate out of this process and
yield strong to locally severe storms persisting somewhat east of
the watch and beyond the 02Z scheduled expiration. Large hail from
1-1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 55-70 mph will remain the
primary hazards. After dusk, a fairly pronounced gradient in MLCAPE
between central to eastern SD, in conjunction with increasing
nocturnal MLCIN, should result in the severe threat becoming more
isolated/marginal during the late evening over eastern SD.

..Grams.. 05/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   46060075 46079951 45899852 45079831 44569843 44029963
            42900083 42560194 42880244 44720156 45940114 46060075 

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