ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 200228 
SPC MCD 200228 
OKZ000-KSZ000-200430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...parts of south central Kansas  and north central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

Valid 200228Z - 200430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
continues.

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development becoming focused
near the central into eastern Kansas/Oklahoma state border vicinity
may pose an increasing risk for severe hail and wind into the
overnight hours.  Trends are being monitored for an additional
severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...To the east of a surface low over the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle vicinity, area VWP data confirm southerly low-level jet
strengthening to 50+ kt is ongoing across northwest Texas toward the
Medicine Lodge KS vicinity.  An increase in new thunderstorm
development is underway near the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity to
the south of Medicine Lodge, in response to strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and lift of seasonably moist
air characterized by CAPE up to around 3000 J/kg.  

As warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air
continues to advect northeastward across Oklahoma, it appears that
an increasingly better-defined mid-level baroclinic zone (roughly
around 700 mb) near the central into eastern Kansas/Oklahoma state
border vicinity will become the focus for stronger convection into
the 05-07Z time frame.  This could include another upscale growing
and organizing convective cluster, in the presence of seasonably
strong shear.

..Kerr.. 05/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37389894 37459798 37269537 36049548 35879764 36289899
            36849964 37389894 

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