ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 211708 
SPC MCD 211708 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-211915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Areas affected...Adirondacks into Parts of northern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 211708Z - 211915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may
occur this afternoon. Clustering of storms may lead to locally
greater wind damage potential. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Morning observed soundings from CAR/GYX showed
mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. With an approaching
MCV/shortwave from Great Lakes region convection last evening, some
increase in storm coverage is expected to occur this afternoon.
Effective shear will only be modest (25-30 kts), but a few more
organized storms/clusters appear possible. Damaging winds and
marginally severe hail will be the primary risks with this activity.
Should storms cluster, locally greater potential for damaging winds
would exist especially where low-level lapse rates have steepened.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43917528 44287511 44797443 45157281 45177194 45757081
            46597008 46466919 45706922 44267036 43497080 42917205
            42407362 42457370 42437458 42697513 43057539 43917528 

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