ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241839 
SPC MCD 241839 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-242045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...south-central and east-central IL...west-central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241839Z - 242045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Episodic strong to occasionally severe multicells will
potentially be capable of localized wind damage (50-65 mph) and
large hail (1.0 to 1.5 inches in diameter).

DISCUSSION...A seasonably moist/moderate to strongly unstable
airmass (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) has developed across south-central
IL extending eastward into west-central IN early this afternoon. 
The southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerlies (30-40 kt at
500 mb) is located across the mid MS Valley into the Wabash Valley. 
Weaker flow is noted in the upper levels (20-30 kt) in the 300-200mb
layer.  Precipitation seeding and additional outflow/merger
processes will promote further storm/cold pool aggregation and
likely a waning risk for severe where convective overturning has
occurred.  In areas void of storms currently, some risk for
strong/localized severe may move into those areas over the next few
hours.  Large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and strong to
locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be possible with the stronger
cores and outflow surges.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38638992 39029031 39509050 39789011 39858946 39868856
            40208807 40708772 40908739 41098698 41058665 40888646
            40418645 39528709 38958787 38628911 38638992 

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