ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 262136 
SPC MCD 262136 
VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-262330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 262136Z - 262330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Downstream severe thunderstorm watch issuance will be
needed within the next 30 minutes to address an approaching MCS.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS continues to push east across the
southern Appalachians and has a history of producing damaging (50-60
mph) winds. GOES imagery shows that this line continues to produce
robust embedded updrafts despite moving into a region with weaker
deep-layer shear. This may be due to compensating effects from
higher SBCAPE on the eastern side of the Appalachians. Given the
buoyant air mass and steep low-level lapse rates downstream, the
severe/damaging wind threat should continue. Watch issuance is
likely within the next 30 minutes.

..Moore/Smith.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   36608128 37088106 37448101 37768107 38108128 38618145
            38918146 39218131 39528076 39718008 39687938 39587886
            39357845 39017832 38477815 37577831 36947850 36527873
            36217907 36027939 35957966 36058016 36218064 36478110
            36608128 

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