ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 262238 
SPC MCD 262238 
INZ000-ILZ000-262345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0989
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...central Illinois into west-central Indiana.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 262238Z - 262345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and hail is increasing with
new storms north of St Louis. A new WW may be needed.

DISCUSSION...As of 2235 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
cluster of strong to severe storms (including a few supercells) has
evolved along a cold front and remnant outflow boundary over eastern
MO and west-central IL. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
F as the air mass has recovered in the wake of an expansive squall
line earlier today. Steep mid-level lapse rates and surface
dewpoints in the 60s to 70s F are supporting ~1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Favorable buoyancy and increasing lift ahead of the cold
front/consolidating outflow should continue to support robust
updrafts. 40-50 kt of vertical shear will also allow for storm
organization into one or more clusters or bowing segments. Given the
favorable parameter space and the potential for organized storms,
the risk for damaging wind gusts and hail appears to be increasing.
A new weather watch is likely.

..Lyons/Smith.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39559005 39928902 40128781 40118678 39918626 39598603
            39198609 38938634 38678757 38658849 38728951 38779001
            39559005 

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