ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 270159 
SPC MCD 270159 
KYZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-INZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0999
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Far Southwest OH...Central/Eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 270159Z - 270300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe gust and QLCS circulations will
likely continue into far southwest Ohio and central/eastern
Kentucky, and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed across the
region to address this potential.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized convective line continues to move
eastward across southwest IN, southern IL, and far southwest KY at
around 50 to 55 kt. This storm motion takes the line to the edge of
Tornado Watch 324 at 0330Z to 0400Z. The airmass over the region is
only weakly buoyant right now, but increasing low to mid-level
moisture ahead of the line should promote the development of modest
buoyancy. This buoyancy will be aided by strong low-level shear.
Recent 00Z BNA sounding sampled strong low-level flow veering with
height, with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity over 330 m2/s2. Recent
JKL VAD sampled this increasing low-level flow as well, with 0-1
storm-relative helicity over 400 m2/s2. 

Given the favorable kinematics and organized character to the
ongoing line, the expectation is that the threat for severe gusts
and QLCS tornado circulations will continue into the region. A
Tornado Watch will likely be needed across the region to address
this potential.

..Mosier/Smith.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38838527 39338447 39038327 38288260 36768306 36638453
            37188512 38838527 

NNNN