ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271810 
SPC MCD 271810 
IAZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of far southern Minnesota into
northern...central...and eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271810Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail and gusty wind threat will accompany the
stronger storms through the afternoon. The severe threat should be
isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The combination of deep-layer ascent with a mid-level
trough grazing the Upper MS Valley, and strong diurnal heating, is
contributing to the increase in coverage and intensity of
thunderstorms over southern MN into northern IA. These storms will
progress southeast in an environment characterized by steep
low-level lapse rates, which will encourage strong wind gusts
(perhaps a couple reaching severe limits) this afternoon. Given
elongated hodographs, the longer-lasting multicells will be capable
of producing some hail as well. However, the overall severe threat
is expected to remain isolated and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43799556 44239431 44089316 43559182 43119114 42439090
            41889078 41189113 40809149 40729181 40869236 41399367
            41919448 42509524 43409573 43799556 

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