ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271837
SPC MCD 271837
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-272000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Areas affected...portions of northern South Carolina...eastern North
Carolina...southeastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 271837Z - 272000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of
northeast SC into southeastern VA. Multicells, line segments, and
supercells will likely develop this afternoon and pose a threat for
large hail and damaging gusts. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled
out. A WW issuance will likely be needed in the next hour or so.
DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating is contributing to
destabilization of the boundary layer, with surface temperatures
rising into the 80s F amid upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints,
boosting MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg over many locales. As the 500 mb vort
max over northern NC continues to progress east, and as MLCINH
continues to erode, thunderstorms should develop in the next couple
of hours, and increase in both coverage and intensity through the
afternoon. A 35+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is overspreading the
Carolinas, beneath a westerly 60+ kt 500 mb jet, contributing to
modestly curved and elongated hodographs. As such, multicells, short
line segments, and occasional supercells, will all be possible
convective modes, accompanied by a large hail/damaging gust threat.
Some forecast soundings show large enough low-level hodograph
curvature to support an isolated tornado threat closer to the NC/VA
coastline.
Given the expected coverage of potential severe weather this
afternoon, a WW issuance will likely be needed in the next hour or
two.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 33808109 35218011 36897880 37467706 37087627 36277594
35437607 34677684 34007768 33707848 33127912 33808109
NNNN