ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 280046 SPC MCD 280046 TXZ000-280245- Mesoscale Discussion 1027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...Middle/Lower Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 280046Z - 280245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large to very large hail (2" to 2.5" in diameter) and strong gusts up to 70 mph are possible across the Middle/Lower Rio Grande Valley this evening. The need for a watch is uncertain, but convective trends will be monitored closely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and regional radar imagery shows an intense left-moving supercell moving across northern Tamaulipas towards the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Recent motion of this storm was estimated at 30 kt, bringing it across the border around 0130Z. Extreme buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 5000 J/kg) is in place downstream, with at least some potential for this storm to maintain its intensity for the next few hours. Main deterrent is the building convective inhibition and warm temperatures aloft, which, given the intensity of the storm, are not expected to result in quick storm weakening. Large to very large hail (2" to 2.5" in diameter) and strong gusts up to 70 mph may impact the Lower Rio Grande Valley within the next hour. Farther north (about 30 miles south of LRD), convergence along an outflow boundary has resulted in convective initiation, with much of the activity west of the border. However, one cell has developed in far western Webb County. Large to very large hail and strong gusts are possible with this storm, as well as any other development that occurs in this area. Given the widely spaced and isolated nature of the severe threat, the need for watch is uncertain. However, convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27089942 27549952 28020006 28049926 26869822 26169825 26489909 27089942 NNNN