ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 281701 SPC MCD 281701 LAZ000-TXZ000-281830- Mesoscale Discussion 1040 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...southwest to south-central Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281701Z - 281830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms may persist southeast across southwest and south-central Louisiana this afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing near the TX/LA border at midday may persist southeast through the afternoon along a surface boundary. A very moist (mid 70s to near 80 F dewpoints) boundary-layer exists across the area beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates (8 C/km) and strong vertical shear (40+ kt effective shear). While this cluster of storms is less intense compared to early in the morning, the downstream environment remains favorable for organized severe. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon if current trends persist/intensify. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31489379 31379292 30769175 30309103 29909068 29389075 29159135 29369264 29629367 29879397 30889413 31489379 NNNN