ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281840 
SPC MCD 281840 
TXZ000-282015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Areas affected...Portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 281840Z - 282015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across western TX.
Supercells capable of all severe hazards are expected, and a Tornado
Watch will be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway ahead of the dryline
across the western TX Panhandle, where convective outflow
progressing westward from earlier storms is providing enhanced lift.
These storms are developing amid an environment characterized by 8+
C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg amid
50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Supercells are expected to evolve
through the afternoon, accompanied by large hail (some stones
exceeding 2 inches in diameter), along with severe gusts and a few
tornadoes. With time, storms may merge into an MCS later this
afternoon. Should this occur, severe gusts will become the main
threat.

A Tornado watch will be issued shortly to address the severe threat.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33279996 33030048 33020167 33180266 33350286 34060286
            34610253 34680110 34660061 34550025 33279996 

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