ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281859 
SPC MCD 281859 
TXZ000-282100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of south-central TX and the Middle Texas
Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281859Z - 282100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for strong gusts and hail
through late afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing along an outflow
boundary approaching the Middle Texas Coast vicinity. Visible
satellite shows towering cumulus developing westward along the
boundary across south-central TX. A similar environment to that
across southeast TX where widespread severe is ongoing is present
across this area as well. A hot (mid/upper 90s) and very moist (70s
F dewpoints) boundary-layer is contributing to strong instability
(2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). A pocket of steep low-level lapse rates is
also present in latest SPC Mesoanalysis data. 

Initial thunderstorm activity has struggled to intensify and it is
unclear if additional storms will develop. If more storms develop
and clustering occurs, damaging wind potential will exist. Trends
will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27659694 27619733 27729786 27909827 28559890 29339951
            29819947 29679852 29529692 28679627 28229641 27659694 

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