ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281913 
SPC MCD 281913 
MTZ000-IDZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of central...southern...and eastern Idaho
into southwestern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281913Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts will be possible with the
stronger storms today. The severe threat should be sparse and a WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms are gradually increasing in
coverage over portions of central ID into southwestern MT. These
storms are developing atop a deep boundary layer, comprised of 9-10
C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates (per latest RAP forecast soundings).
The stronger, longer-lasting thunderstorms may generate enough
evaporative cooling to support strong downbursts, where a couple of
severe surface gusts may be observed. Still, the severe threat will
be isolated, precluding the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON   42271660 44711616 47641384 47721205 47301167 46331191
            45001199 43531198 42571237 42221305 42031498 42271660 

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