ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291825 
SPC MCD 291825 
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-292030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana...western North
Dakota...eastern Wyoming...western South Dakota...extreme northwest
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 291825Z - 292030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon as
storms developing along the immediate lee of the higher terrain and
progress eastward. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. A WW
issuance may be needed in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s F amid
lower 50s F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg as MLCINH
continues to erode. MLCAPE should reach around 2000 J/kg in a few
more hours, when upslope flow and upper-level support will promote
more robust convective initiation. Given modest deep-layer shear,
multicells and brief, transient supercells are expected to be the
observed storm modes. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main
threats with any of the stronger, longer-lasting storms. The
coverage of storms and associated severe wind/hail may be great
enough to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance within the
next few hours.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   41050586 43080611 47800617 49090555 49080399 48070331
            45640282 43980284 42540341 41700415 41050586 

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