ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 011848 SPC MCD 011848 TXZ000-NMZ000-012015- Mesoscale Discussion 1110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...Parts of far west into southwest TX...southeast NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011848Z - 012015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected later this afternoon, with a threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely by 3 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating is underway early this afternoon from southwest into far west TX and southeast NM. Low-level southeasterly flow will support continued moistening through the afternoon beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. As CINH continues to weaken with time and a subtle subtropical shortwave trough approaches from the west, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon. Midlevel westerly flow is generally modest across the region, though somewhat stronger with southward extent into the Trans-Pecos and southern parts of the Permian Basin. A couple of supercells may evolve out of initial convection and move east-southeastward, with an attendant threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. The threat for very large hail (potentially 2 - 3.5 inches in diameter) may become maximized across parts of the Trans-Pecos region from 4-6 PM CDT, when a supercell or two is expected to mature across that region. Finally, while low-level flow/shear will generally remain weak, a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with any supercell that can propagate into the richer low-level moisture. Watch issuance is likely by 3 PM CDT, in response to the threats described above. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30760467 32460537 33520539 34230391 33980264 33280225 31910200 29690177 29570249 28950288 28900353 29120384 29640454 30760467 NNNN