ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021951 COR
SPC MCD 021951 COR
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-022030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024
Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...northeastern
Colorado...western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 021951Z - 022030Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms developing over the southeastern Wyoming vicinity
should gradually increase/expand eastward/southeastward over the
next couple of hours -- likely requiring WW issuance by 02/21z.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows convection
slowly increasing across the southeastern Wyoming, with growing TCU
southward to the Palmer Divide. This increase is occurring as
ascent associated with weak short-wave troughing moving across
Wyoming overspreads the area. Recently, a stronger storm has
initiated over Banner County in the Nebraska Panhandle, and -- while
capping remains in place farther east -- this storm may note the
initial stages of the anticipated afternoon/evening severe-weather
event over western Nebraska and adjacent northwestern Kansas.
Above the aforementioned capping inversion over western Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas, steep lapse rates are contributing to 2000 to
3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. As stronger mid-level westerly flow --
associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough -- spreads
eastward across the central High Plains, the overall environment
will increasingly support potential for severe/supercell storms.
Along with potential for very large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts
are also expected locally -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation within
the rather deeply mixed boundary layer.
..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41250536 42100374 43410068 43069890 42009833 40159950
39740044 39600414 39930503 41250536
NNNN