ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 030008 
SPC MCD 030008 
TXZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...West and Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...

Valid 030008Z - 030215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across west Texas is expected to
continue over the next few hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible, along with an isolated tornado threat. The severe
threat may affect areas of the far western Texas Hill Country later
this evening, where a watch could be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Midland, TX
shows a small cluster of severe storms located to the northeast of
Big Bend National Park. One supercell is ongoing in far eastern
Brewster County. The airmass ahead of this cluster is strongly
unstable, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg
range. RAP forecast soundings in this area have 0-6 km shear near 50
knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment
will continue to be favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter, along with a few
severe wind gusts will be possible. Forecast soundings also have 0-3
km storm-relative helicity in the 150 to 200 m2/s2 range, suggesting
that any tornado threat will remain isolated. The tornado threat may
persist for a couple more hours. The cluster is expected to remain
organized for at least a few more hours, as it moves to the east of
WW 378. A new watch could become necessary if the cluster remains
intense.

..Broyles.. 06/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30930244 30450275 30030276 29740225 29680154 29560114
            29450062 29590013 30089994 30650024 31050137 30930244 

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