ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081751 
SPC MCD 081751 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-081945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast WY...southern NE Panhandle...CO Front
Range and eastern plains...southwest NE...northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 081751Z - 081945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from west
of Cheyenne, WY to the I-70 foothills vicinity west of Denver during
the 18-19 UTC (12-1 pm MDT) period.  The risk for mainly large hail 
will be the most prominent severe hazard as the activity emerges
from the higher terrain into the High Plains.  As storms mature with
increasing cold pool coverage and additional storm mergers occur,
the threat for severe gusts will quickly increase and become the
more widespread hazard as the storms move well east of Denver into
eastern CO and eventually into northwest KS/southwest NE by early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Midday satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave
trough moving east from eastern UT into northwest CO/southern WY. 
Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will continue to increase
in the areas downstream over the Front Range.  Strong heating and
orographic ascent of a seasonably moist airmass (17 UTC surface
observations in the WY-CO I-25 corridor indicate 50s deg F
dewpoints) will contribute to thunderstorms continuing to initiate
during the next hour or so (between 18-19 UTC).  Forecast soundings
show buoyancy increasing to around 1500 J/kg near I-25, with
2000-2500 J/kg farther east near the CO/KS/NE tri-state border by
late this afternoon.  Ample deep-layer shear due to easterly
low-level flow veering to westerly and increasing with height will
strongly favor storm organization.  The early convective cycle of
the storms will likely feature a mix of supercells and multicells. 
The hail risk will be most prominent during this period in which
storms have not transitioned to a more outflow-generating storm
mode.  Large to very large hail (peak diameter potentially in the 2
to 3 inches range) will be possible with these storms.  The
potential for severe gusts will quickly increase once cold pools
become established and additional storm merging occurs.  A linear
cluster evolving into a forward-propagating squall line will
probably occur later this afternoon into the evening.  Severe gust
intensity will correspondingly increase with potential peak wind
speeds in eastern CO/northwestern KS in the 75-90 mph range.

..Smith/Gleason.. 06/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41690495 41800410 41500345 40970239 40820164 40380123
            39620114 38990127 38530203 38410279 38460401 39050499
            39460533 39930539 40660538 41290523 41690495 

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