ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090303 
SPC MCD 090303 
KSZ000-090430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400...

Valid 090303Z - 090430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe gusts and isolated large hail will
continue spreading eastward across southwest Kansas tonight. 60-70
mph gusts are expected, with isolated gusts up to 80 mph possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of organized storms that tracked eastward out
of southeastern CO is showing signs of upscale growth, given recent
downstream warm-advection-driven convection. Strong low-level
veering winds (sampled by DDC VWP) suggests warm-air advection may
further aid in upscale growth. Ahead of this convection, antecedent
heating of a moist boundary layer (middle/upper 60s dewpoints),
beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, has yielded a
favorable east/west-oriented axis of moderate surface-based
instability. As the upscale-growing cluster tracks eastward across
this instability, the cold pool may become more organized, given
around 40 kt of line-orthogonal effective shear. The primary risk
should be severe gusts of 60-70 mph, with isolated gusts up to 80
mph possible. Isolated large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two
will also be possible with any embedded stronger rotating cores.

..Weinman.. 06/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37930158 38570120 38830075 38870023 38699949 38359917
            37559920 37119955 37070036 37120106 37290148 37600169
            37930158 

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