ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132218 
SPC MCD 132218 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the Midwest

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409...

Valid 132218Z - 132345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409
continues.

SUMMARY...Cluster of severe thunderstorms will propagate across
southeast Iowa/northeast Missouri into western Illinois. Very large
hail, possibly in excess of 2 inches, can be expected with this
activity.

DISCUSSION...An expanding cluster of severe thunderstorms has
developed over southeast IA/northeast MO early this evening. This
activity is evolving along a wind shift that extends from western
IL/southeast IA/northwest MO. Latest diagnostic data suggests this
convection is evolving within an air mass characterized by 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE and adequately sheared for sustained rotating updrafts.
Numerous reports of hail in excess of 2 inches have been received
with this convection. With time this cluster should grow upscale and
an MCS may ultimately evolve. Severe winds may become more common
if/when the MCS matures. Subsequent movement is expected across
western into central IL.

..Darrow.. 06/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40808968 39769020 39869249 40509289 41089134 40808968 

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