ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141718 
SPC MCD 141718 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-141915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Areas affected...Northeast VT...Northern/Central NH...ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141718Z - 141915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible today from
northeast Vermont and northern/central New Hampshire across much of
Maine. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with the strongest
storms, and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows thunderstorms are
beginning to develop along and ahead of the cold front progressing
southeastward into the region. Development thus far has occurred
just along the leading edge of the better large-scale forcing for
ascent, coincident with where modest low-level convergence within
the vicinity of a weak pre-frontal trough is augmenting the more
synoptic lift. The downstream air mass is only modestly buoyant,
with current mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Heating
has been limited thus far, but cloud cover is beginning to thin,
suggesting additional heating may occur in the region between the
warm conveyor and the surface cold front. Additional heating would
boost buoyancy, with stronger updrafts then more likely. Moderate
vertical shear is in place, with regional VADs recently sampling 40
to 45 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. 

Given the linear forcing and modest buoyancy, a linear multicellular
mode will likely be the primary storm mode. However, vertical shear
is strong enough to support supercell structures within any deeper,
more sustained updrafts. Additionally, with the primary front still
west of the region, multiple rounds of development along axes of
low-level convergence are possible. Both hail and/damaging gusts are
possible, but the hail threat will likely be confined to the more
discrete storms. Overall severe coverage is uncertain, so convective
trends will be monitored closely for potential watch issuance.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   44956828 44306911 44056956 43787022 43637094 43617219
            44157248 45017163 46247037 47056943 47006806 46106788
            44956828 

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