ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142304 
SPC MCD 142304 
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Areas affected...Southwestern Nebraska...western Kansas...portions
of the Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 142304Z - 150000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed downstream of
WW414 by 00z.

DISCUSSION...Broken linear structures and clusters of thunderstorm
activity have been ongoing across portions of western Colorado and
New Mexico, with a few instances of severe winds reported in
southern Colorado. CAM guidance suggests thunderstorm activity will
continue to increase in coverage and merge with deepening cold pools
as activity shifts eastward into the central Great Plains this
evening.

The air mass downstream of WW414 is characterized by MLCAPE around
1000-1400 J/kg and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. An increase
in southerly low-level jet is expected along the
Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border through the evening. This will
support a continued risk of damaging wind, with gusts 60-75 mph
(isolated 75+ mph). Given modest shear profiles, some instances of
severe hail will be possible but the main threat will likely
continue to be damaging wind. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
likely be needed downstream of WW414 soon.

..Thornton/Smith.. 06/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   41440153 41840094 41869987 41539937 41029907 39619903
            38099899 37289931 36550091 36460134 36610203 38780184
            41440153 

NNNN