ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160409 
SPC MCD 160409 
TXZ000-NMZ000-160545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...TX Permian Basin into far southeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 160409Z - 160545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat could persist into the early
overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is moving southeastward toward
Midland late this evening. While MLCINH is increasing and the
longevity of this cell is uncertain, steep midlevel lapse rates and
favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z MAF sounding) will
continue to support a large hail threat for as long as this storm
persists, along with some potential for localized severe gusts. 

Farther west, elevated convection is gradually increasing across
southeast NM, along the western periphery of deeper low-level
moisture. This convection is possibly being aided by a subtle
southern-stream vorticity maximum, and some recent CAM guidance
suggests that a strong storm or two could emerge out of this
developing area of convection, and move eastward with an isolated
hail threat into the early overnight hours.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33440448 33740428 33880336 33110204 32440144 31810121
            31570228 31990272 32310322 32530352 33440448 

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