ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170434 
SPC MCD 170434 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...Western/northern NE...south-central/southeast
SD...southwest MN...extreme northwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

Valid 170434Z - 170600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for hail and perhaps isolated strong/severe
gusts will continue overnight.

DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection that earlier erupted
across northern NE/southern SD has evolved into an elongated storm
cluster with occasional embedded elevated supercells. Some recent
intensification has also been noted with a storm cluster moving into
the southeast part of the NE Panhandle from northeast CO. Moderate
to strong elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will
support occasionally organized storms into the overnight hours. A
strong low-level jet will continue to support rather widespread
storm coverage, with a tendency toward a cluster and perhaps
eventually a linear mode. This mode evolution may not be ideal for a
more organized hail threat, but very steep midlevel lapse rates will
result in occasional large-hail potential with the stronger embedded
cells. Isolated strong to severe gusts will also be possible,
especially if organized upscale growth occurs. 

Some severe threat may spread into southern MN and far northwest IA
with time, and eventual downstream watch issuance is possible if
observational trends support maintenance of an organized
severe-thunderstorm threat.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42570349 43619957 44339729 45089478 44629420 44009395
            42749751 41830029 41140165 41080267 41210340 42570349 

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