ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171628 
SPC MCD 171628 
MIZ000-WIZ000-171800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...Far Northeast WI into Central/Eastern Upper MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...

Valid 171628Z - 171800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts and/or hail will continue for
the next hour or so. Downstream watch across the eastern UP not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convective cluster continues to
progress northeastward from far northeastern WI into central Upper
MI, supported by a eastward-progressing cold front. Modest
destabilization has occurred downstream across central Upper MI, 
with mid/upper 70s temperatures amid upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints
current in place. This buoyancy should help maintain the ongoing
cluster, with some modest intensification possible over the next
hour or so. Damaging gusts will remain the primary risk, but hail is
possible with any more cellular development that occurs ahead of the
cluster.

Given the increasing cloud cover, destabilization is more uncertain
farther east into eastern Upper MI, with the storms expected to
gradually weaken as they encounter the increasing stable airmass
farther east. As such, a downstream watch across the eastern UP
appears unlikely.

..Mosier.. 06/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   45078885 46158823 46688774 46858639 46248591 44598754
            44298888 45078885 

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