ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172323 
SPC MCD 172323 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-180130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into the Permian
Basin vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172323Z - 180130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
evening, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating has resulted in moderate destabilization
along/east of a diffuse dryline from the OK/TX Panhandles southward
into parts of the Permian Basin and southeast NM. A weak midlevel
shortwave trough moving across eastern NM may aid in development of
isolated thunderstorms this evening. Midlevel flow is rather modest,
but sufficient veering with height is supporting effective shear of
30-35 kt across the region, and a couple organized cells/clusters
could evolve with time. Rather deep, well-mixed boundary layers and
moderate low-level flow will support isolated severe gusts with the
stronger storms, with sufficient buoyancy for some hail potential as
well. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, with coverage
of the severe threat expected to remain rather isolated.

..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33060355 35870272 36750226 36770197 36610149 35290142
            33020182 32040201 32070363 32690366 33060355 

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