ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 191610 
SPC MCD 191610 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-191815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NY into New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191610Z - 191815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic, localized downbursts with gusts from 50-60 mph
along with small hail of 0.5-1.0 inch in diameter will be possible
with pulse-type thunderstorms through this afternoon. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across parts of
eastern NY into VT, with increasingly agitated Cu downstream into NH
and western ME. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should
occur through the afternoon amid a moderate buoyancy plume
characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, driven by 71-74 F surface
dew points in lower elevations. Deep-layer shear is weak per the CXX
VWP data and is expected to remain so, especially with eastern
extent in New England. Slightly greater mid to upper flow upstream
over the Lower Great Lakes, per the 12Z BUF sounding, may support
weakly organized clustering by peak heating. But slow-moving,
pulse-type storms should largely dominate. Primary threat should be
localized downbursts with strong gusts capable of producing sporadic
tree damage.

..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   42007348 42987507 44657409 45107373 45817031 45606941
            45026949 44177051 42897213 42007348 

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