ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 201938 
SPC MCD 201938 
MTZ000-202045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Areas affected...West Central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 201938Z - 202045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development over the mountains has increased
over the last half hour, with the potential for a supercell or two
to develop in Central MT. Isolated hail and damaging winds are
possible, especially with isolated convection that moves eastward
into the better buoyancy and shear. WW issuance is not likely due to
uncertainty in spatial coverage of severe threats.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage along the
mountains in far western MT, and a more mature thunderstorm has
developed over Judith Basin county. Due to proximity to the upper
trough, RAP forecast profiles show cold temperatures aloft
supportive of SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg. Deep layer shear over Central and
Eastern MT are in the range of 40-50kts, decreasing towards the west
over the higher terrain.

Any convection that tracks further east into Central MT should
encounter better combinations of shear and buoyancy, resulting in an
isolated threat for 1+ inch hail and 60+ MPH wind gusts. 

However, due to uncertainty in spatial coverage of organized severe
storms, WW issuance is not expected at this time.

..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 06/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   46841349 47991355 48831361 48991326 48751257 47661225
            47391140 47471071 47720948 47830872 47540826 46990815
            46520826 46310857 46120922 45960985 45681080 45801233
            46151329 46841349 

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