ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 222020 
SPC MCD 222020 
MIZ000-222115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Areas affected...north-central Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222020Z - 222115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado and/or localized 50-65
mph gust will focus in a mesoscale area northwest of Saginaw Bay
over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed on the southern end of a band
of low-topped convection moving across northern Lower MI.  Lightning
was recently observed in the past 15 minutes as the storm moves east
along a west-east oriented stationary front.  Along and south of the
boundary, surface dewpoints are in the 70-72 deg F range.  Ample
deep-layer shear and adequate buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will
seemingly support a continuation and maintenance of this storm as it
moves east.  An isolated risk for a 50-65 mph gust and perhaps a
brief tornado are possible with this storm.

..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...

LAT...LON   44188438 44218367 44108352 43988361 43908374 43958446
            44088450 44188438 

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