ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 251936 SPC MCD 251936 SDZ000-NEZ000-252130- Mesoscale Discussion 1410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...Western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251936Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is ongoing in northwestern South Dakota and over the Black Hills. These storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, especially with southeastward extent. Convective trends are being monitored, and weather watch issuance may be needed later this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is increasing in coverage along a cold front that is slowly moving south across northern South Dakota, with additional development possible over the Black Hills. SPC Mesoanalysis shows these storms are in an environment characterized by 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 45-50 kts of deep layer shear, though in a relatively dry boundary layer with large T/Td spreads. Given the strong vertical shear and deep, dry boundary layer, these storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts, especially with any organized bowing segments and embedded supercells. Large hail may be possible with any rotating convection as storms move further south and east into richer boundary layer moisture and buoyancy. In the Black Hills, surface observations and RAP sounding profiles indicate locally higher moisture content with lower LCL heights and better buoyancy, with 45-50 kts of deep layer shear characterized by long, straight hodographs. If convective initiation occurs over the Black Hills, as is expected, splitting supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Convective trends are being monitored for a weather watch, though uncertainty exists on exact timing and southeastward extent of watch issuance. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45250302 45290259 45290225 45250190 45070156 44870128 44590106 44200090 44010077 43750068 43460059 43140054 42930070 42910108 42940174 43040215 43170255 43380303 43500323 43620353 43840377 44230374 44570362 44850347 45180324 45250302 NNNN