ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 260413 
SPC MCD 260413 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...northeastern
Kansas...southwestern Iowa...and northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 260413Z - 260515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe storms over portions of Nebraska
and southern Iowa should expand southeastward and increase in
coverage over the next few hours.  New WW -- extending into
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, will be needed
shortly.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows clusters of strong/severe
storms from north-central Nebraska to southwestern Iowa, moving
steadily southeastward.  With a moderately unstable airmass (3000 to
3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) ahead
of the convection into Kansas/Missouri, and a moderate southwesterly
low-level jet observed, continued southeasterly advance of the
convection is expected.  With this area beneath the
leading/expanding edge of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow,
storms should organize/grow upscale with time, propagating southward
with attendant risks for large hail and damaging winds.  The
anticipated/expanding risk will warrant new WW issuance shortly.

..Goss/Gleason.. 06/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38559430 38839636 39669721 41009719 41499708 40849273
            39109251 38729296 38559430 

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