ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022213 
SPC MCD 022213 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-022345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into extreme northeastern
Missouri...extreme western Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 497...

Valid 022213Z - 022345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 497.
Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible with an MCS over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS is moving eastward across eastern Iowa
into far northern MO amid strong deep-layer shear and buoyancy (i.e.
50-60 kts of effective bulk shear and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). On the
MCS leading line, multiple mesovortices have developed, showing up
to 40 kt rotational velocities, suggesting that low-level
circulations are strong enough to support damaging gusts and
potential tornadogenesis. The DVN VAD profiler shows an appreciably
large and curved hodograph, with over 300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, which
would certainly support additional tornado potential when also
considering ample available buoyancy. At the moment, southeastern
Iowa, which is the near the apex of the bowing QLCS, has the best
short-term tornado potential.

..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40369321 41219225 41649193 42259151 42449102 42439032
            42178992 41758982 41338994 40749043 40439095 40239200
            40169278 40369321 

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