ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082329 
SPC MCD 082329 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-090130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...TS Beryl

Concerning...Tornado Watch 514...515...

Valid 082329Z - 090130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514, 515 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will be most concentrated from northern
Louisiana into central Arkansas this evening.

DISCUSSION...Center of TS Beryl is lifting northeast across
northeast TX early this evening. Latest radar data suggests the
remnant circulation is just south of Longview. As such, strongest
low-level shear is now focusing across the ArkLaTex, especially into
southern AR where values continue to increase. Latest VWP data from
SHV depicts weakening 0-3km SRH values, while 0-3km values are
showing a marked increase as far northeast as LZK (300 m2/s2). While
a few supercells linger at lower latitudes over central LA, the
strongest longer-lived supercells are now concentrated from
northwest LA into southwest AR. Over the next several hours the
primary corridor of concern will orient itself from north of SHV
toward LIT.

..Darrow.. 07/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33209421 34399308 33689188 32759337 33209421 

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