ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122140 
SPC MCD 122140 
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-122315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...Far northeast Arkansas into southern Illinois and
far southwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122140Z - 122315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized threat for isolated hail and damaging winds
may continue for the next 1-2 hours across far northeast Arkansas
into southern Illinois and far southwest Indiana. In general, the
severe threat is expected to wane heading into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar composites and GOES visible imagery show
a clear convective cold pool expanding across the lower OH River
Valley region with convection largely struggling to remain sustained
(largely owing to weak environmental shear and storm motions into
the cold pool). However, over the past 30 minutes, a couple of
brief, but relatively intense updrafts have been noted in IR
cloud-top temperatures. MRMS hail metrics suggest hail may be
approaching severe limits, and the overall thermodynamic environment
on the periphery of the cold pool (characterized by over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and somewhat steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-2 km) may
support damaging downburst winds. Ambient lift along the outflow
boundary and ahead of a weak MCV over southeast MO may support
additional convection over the next 1-2 hours, but storm longevity
(and the overall severe threat) is expected to remain fairly
limited.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38508743 38328771 37998802 37548811 37008821 36728848
            36568909 36179004 36179077 36169121 36539134 36839120
            37179041 37518984 37948958 38188946 38488942 38748915
            38978878 39068847 39058804 38948760 38788743 38508743 

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