ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131713 
SPC MCD 131713 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-131945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...Parts of northern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131713Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging wind are
possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across
southern QC early this afternoon, which will continue to aid in
thunderstorm development through the afternoon across parts of
northern New England. A few storms have recently developed in
northern VT, with storm coverage expected to gradually increase
through the afternoon across the region. 

Midlevel lapse rates noted on regional 12Z soundings were quite
weak, but some improvement is possible with time as midlevel cooling
attendant to the shortwave trough overspreads the region. MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg (locally greater) and effective shear of 30-40 kt may
support occasional storm organization. Steepening low-level lapse
rates will support some potential for damaging wind through the
afternoon, though with low-level flow expected to remain rather
weak, the wind threat is expected to remain rather isolated. Also,
small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with the
strongest cells.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   47436939 47286796 45596748 44316979 43547093 43327342
            43587389 44277371 44637347 44867314 45207163 47436939 

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