ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132004 
SPC MCD 132004 
WIZ000-MNZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...Southeast MN into central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132004Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase through the
afternoon, with a threat of isolated hail, damaging wind, and
possibly a brief tornado.

DISCUSSION...Some recent intensification has been noted with storms
across central WI, and also near the MN/WI to the southeast of the
Twin Cities. Both of these storm clusters are located near an
outflow-influenced front, with very warm and moist conditions noted
south of the effective front across southeast MN and central WI. 

Convective evolution through the afternoon remains somewhat
uncertain, but some increase in storm coverage and intensity will be
possible as MLCAPE continues to increase into the 2000-3000 J/kg
along/south of the boundary. Effective shear generally ranges from
25-35 kt (greater with westward extent), with some modest increase
possible as somewhat stronger midlevel flow overspreads the region
through the afternoon. A few stronger clusters and possibly a couple
of supercells could evolve with time. Large hail and locally
damaging wind would be the most likely hazards, though a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out near the boundary. 

Watch issuance is possible if observational trends continue to
support an increase in storm coverage through the afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   43879201 44049261 44389340 44889418 45139414 45169377
            44779273 45189028 45348911 45358831 45138798 44748792
            44448818 44218832 43858906 43798971 43789154 43879201 

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