ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151814 
SPC MCD 151814 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-152015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Southeast NY/northern NJ into parts of southern New
England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151814Z - 152015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are gradually strengthening early this
afternoon across southeast NY and also across central MA. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching southern New England may
support additional storm development through the afternoon, as any
remaining MLCINH across the region continues to diminish.
Low/midlevel flow is not particularly strong, but modest veering of
the wind profile with height will support 20-30 kt of effective
shear, which could support modest storm organization in the presence
of moderate buoyancy. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support
isolated damaging-wind potential with the strongest storms, while
small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   41467473 41837473 42077462 42077403 42207339 42607234
            43057111 43017072 42697062 42377086 42167081 41877047
            41777098 41397299 40977395 41027468 41467473 

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