ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152049 
SPC MCD 152049 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Eastern CO/WY...southwest SD...NE
Panhandle...extreme northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 152049Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail are possible
through late afternoon. Some uptick in severe-wind potential is
possible with time into the central High Plains.

DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based convection is developing this
afternoon from near the CO Front Range into southeast WY and the
Black Hills. Low-level moisture is rather limited across the region,
but strong heating has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to near 500
J/kg. Deep-layer shear is rather modest where storms are currently
ongoing, with the exception of the Black Hills region, where
somewhat stronger deep-layer flow/shear is in place. Steep
low/midlevel lapse rates will support a threat of isolated
strong/severe gusts in the short term, with some hail potential
attendant to the strongest storms. 

As storms move off of the higher terrain by late afternoon into
early evening, there may be some increase in severe-wind potential
into parts of the central High Plains, though uncertainty remains
regarding the extent (if any) of outflow consolidation and modest
upscale growth. Eventual watch issuance is possible if a more
organized severe-wind threat becomes evident.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38310270 38240376 38260443 38380491 38880504 39330532
            39730545 42420526 43300503 44280364 44160244 42400201
            41490178 41010171 40350170 39620171 38920199 38310270 

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