ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161146 
SPC MCD 161146 
MOZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-161345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1648
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northwest/North-central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 544...

Valid 161146Z - 161345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 544
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will be possible over the next few
hours from northeast Kansas eastward across much of northern
Missouri. Weather watch issuance is being considered to the east of
WW 544.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Kansas City
shows a cluster of strong to severe storms across northeast Kansas
and far northwest Missouri. The storms are located along the
northern edge of moderate instability near a front oriented
east-to-west. The convective cluster is being supported by a subtle
shortwave trough moving through the central Plains, and by the exit
region of a 30 to 50 knot low-level jet in eastern Kansas. In
addition to the moderate instability, MLCIN is estimated by the RAP
to be near -300 J/kg. In spite of this, the convection has produced
severe gusts, and has generally maintained intensity over the last
couple of hours. For this reason, the severe threat is expected to
continue as the storms move eastward across northern Missouri this
morning.

..Broyles.. 07/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40079463 40149289 40109178 39839140 39519133 39189144
            39039182 39019224 38889498 38739642 38909718 39289727
            39679690 40079463 

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