ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161919 
SPC MCD 161919 
NCZ000-VAZ000-162045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Western North Carolina and Southern Virgina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161919Z - 162045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging winds are possible
this afternoon across portions of western North Carolina and into
southern Virginia. Given the isolated and transient nature of
thunderstorms in this environment, watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Isolated cells and multi-cell clusters ongoing in
western North Carolina and southern Virginia are in an environment
characterized by large buoyancy, but little to no deep-layer wind
shear, and steep low level lapse rates. Some of these storms could
be capable of damaging straight-line winds from thunderstorm
outflow, and there could be some local enhancement of thunderstorm
winds from merging/interacting outflow. However, any occurrence of
severe is expected to be isolated and brief, and weather watch
issuance is unlikely at this time.

..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36688111 36838053 36827989 36717923 36377886 35757886
            35397903 35257941 35158007 35148053 35218102 35408153
            35728176 36068173 36328165 36688111 

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