ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171900 
SPC MCD 171900 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-172100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...Parts of north TX into the ArkLaTex region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171900Z - 172100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging wind are possible
through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have intensified this afternoon across northeast
TX, in the vicinity of a surface boundary and to the south of a
southeastward-moving MCV across central OK. Strong heating of a
richly moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to 1500-3000
J/kg, to the south of the ongoing convection and related cloud
shield. Low/midlevel flow is weak across the region, but large PW
and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential for
localized downbursts. The strongest storms may briefly be capable of
producing small to marginally severe hail as well. Outflow
consolidation could eventually result in some loosely organized
storm clustering, though this possibility remains rather uncertain.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32239803 32819749 33619598 33859359 33459322 32979330
            32609369 32139519 31819666 31599754 32239803 

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