ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 181822 
SPC MCD 181822 
LAZ000-MSZ000-181915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeast Louisiana into extreme
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181822Z - 181915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible over the next few
hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular convection has recently organized into
an MCS with some bowing characteristics associated with merging cold
pools. This bowing feature is progressing into a strongly unstable
environment (i.e. 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) driven by strong surface
heating and low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Though vertical wind
shear is weak, this bowing structure/cold pool progressing into this
buoyant airmass may promote the development of strong wind gusts,
and a severe gust cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, the severe
threat should be sparse, so a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30989158 31269090 31139000 30848942 30488937 30148949
            29968988 30079049 30179092 30369106 30989158 

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